Recap: I raised to 2 holding AdKd from middle position and got called by a somewhat loose passive player in CO position. I hit a beautiful flop Ac6d8d, and let out with a standard C-bet of $3. Turn came 3c, I bet $5 and got immediately raised to $13. This is an obvious call, since we do not want to face an all-in bet and be forced out of the hand. On the river, 7c shows up completing the flush if our opponent has a flush. (Although this is somewhat unlikely given the action so far in the hand).
I decided to check the flop. I think there are some merit in making a defensive bet, but I feel that our opponent has us beat most of the time. In the rare cases he has air, he will often give up on the river. Checking I was initially planning on calling a small bet on the river. Not sure were my cutoff is, but Im not calling anything bigger than ½ pot in this spot.
In this hand my opponent bet $28 into 35 pot and I folded.
I think that this is a pretty obvious fold. In order to call I need to win 30% of the time. People simply doesn't bluff like this, unless they had a strong draw on the turn that missed. All the club draws got ther. Also, most straight flush draw (with diamonds) got there to such as Td9d or 5d4d. That leaves QdJ and JdTd and I have a hard time putting these hands in his range. Other strong Aces such a AK and AQ would most likely check behind on the river, or bet small for thin value. Hence, he either has us beat or complete air. Given what I have seen, I think he has it at least 80% of the time.
Being a Zoom table you really dont have to worry that much about table image, and showing weakness on the river. Since the only opponent paying attention at this point is the one that has bet into you on the river. This is a typical situation were many players myself included stare to much on the strength of your own hand instead of looking at the entire picture. In this spot, you need to win more than 30% of the time in order to justify a call. This is a spot where you just simply have to fold your hand. The line that I took with this hand might seem weak to some players, but Im fairly convinced that this is the right line to take.
I chose this hand to illustrate what poker is about. It is not about bluffing, or hitting the nuts. It is about folding when you feel that you are beat. The difference between winning and losing has almost nothing to do with how big hands you are winning. It is about avoiding that last bet on the river, when you know that you are most likely beat
If you have questions or inputs, feel free to comment below
Pokerguden
PokerStars Zoom Hand #110068541821: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2014/01/13 23:13:11 CCT [2014/01/13 10:13:11 ET]
Table 'Omega Centauri' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: matiko09 ($149.97 in chips)
Seat 2: baiyushan ($49 in chips)
Seat 3: Helbisch ($100 in chips)
Seat 4: ThIxOtRoPiE ($151.59 in chips)
Seat 5: machineeeee ($45.50 in chips)
Seat 6: skala81 ($35.16 in chips)
Seat 7: Pokerguden ($176.71 in chips)
Seat 8: Jennarito ($153.21 in chips)
Seat 9: Zarzoor912 ($161.75 in chips)
baiyushan: posts small blind $0.50
Helbisch: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pokerguden [Kd Ad]
ThIxOtRoPiE: folds
machineeeee: folds
skala81: folds
Pokerguden: raises $1 to $2
Jennarito: folds
Zarzoor912: calls $2
matiko09: folds
baiyushan: folds
Helbisch: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 6d Kc]
Pokerguden: bets $3
Zarzoor912: calls $3
*** TURN *** [8d 6d Kc] [3c]
Pokerguden: bets $5
Zarzoor912: raises $8 to $13
Pokerguden: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [8d 6d Kc 3c] [7c]
Pokerguden: checks
Zarzoor912: bets $28
Pokerguden: folds
Uncalled bet ($28) returned to Zarzoor912
Zarzoor912 collected $35.81 from pot
Zarzoor912: doesn't show hand
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