Tricky AK result

Recap: I raised to 2 holding AdKd from middle position and got called by a somewhat loose passive player in CO position. I hit a beautiful flop Ac6d8d, and let out with a standard C-bet of $3. Turn came 3c, I bet $5 and got immediately raised to $13. This is an obvious call, since we do not want to face an all-in bet and be forced out of the hand. On the river, 7c shows up completing the flush if our opponent has a flush. (Although this is somewhat unlikely given the action so far in the hand).

I decided to check the flop. I think there are some merit in making a defensive bet, but I feel that our opponent has us beat most of the time. In the rare cases he has air, he will often give up on the river. Checking I was initially planning on calling a small bet on the river. Not sure were my cutoff is, but Im not calling anything bigger than ½ pot in this spot.

In this hand my opponent bet $28 into 35 pot and I folded.

 I think that this is a pretty obvious fold. In order to call I need to win 30% of the time. People simply doesn't bluff like this, unless they had a strong draw on the turn that missed. All the club draws got ther. Also, most straight flush draw (with diamonds) got there to such as Td9d or 5d4d. That leaves QdJ and JdTd and I have a hard time putting these hands in his range. Other strong Aces such a AK and AQ would most likely check behind on the river, or bet small for thin value. Hence, he either has us beat or complete air. Given what I have seen, I think he has it at least 80% of the time.


 Being a Zoom table you really dont have to worry that much about table image, and showing weakness on the river. Since the only opponent paying attention at this point is the one that has bet into you on the river.  This is a typical situation were many players myself included stare to much on the strength of your own hand instead of looking at the entire picture. In this spot, you need to win more than 30% of the time in order to justify a call. This is a spot where you just simply have to fold your hand. The line that I took with this hand might seem weak to some players, but Im fairly convinced that this is the right line to take.



 I chose this hand to illustrate what poker is about. It is not about bluffing, or hitting the nuts. It is about folding when you feel that you are beat. The difference between winning and losing has almost nothing to do with how big hands you are winning. It is about avoiding that last bet on the river, when you know that you are most likely beat

If you have questions or inputs, feel free to comment below
Pokerguden








PokerStars Zoom Hand #110068541821:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2014/01/13 23:13:11 CCT [2014/01/13 10:13:11 ET]
Table 'Omega Centauri' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: matiko09 ($149.97 in chips)
Seat 2: baiyushan ($49 in chips)
Seat 3: Helbisch ($100 in chips)
Seat 4: ThIxOtRoPiE ($151.59 in chips)
Seat 5: machineeeee ($45.50 in chips)
Seat 6: skala81 ($35.16 in chips)
Seat 7: Pokerguden ($176.71 in chips)
Seat 8: Jennarito ($153.21 in chips)
Seat 9: Zarzoor912 ($161.75 in chips)
baiyushan: posts small blind $0.50
Helbisch: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pokerguden [Kd Ad]
ThIxOtRoPiE: folds
machineeeee: folds
skala81: folds
Pokerguden: raises $1 to $2
Jennarito: folds
Zarzoor912: calls $2
matiko09: folds
baiyushan: folds
Helbisch: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 6d Kc]
Pokerguden: bets $3
Zarzoor912: calls $3
*** TURN *** [8d 6d Kc] [3c]
Pokerguden: bets $5
Zarzoor912: raises $8 to $13
Pokerguden: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [8d 6d Kc 3c] [7c]
Pokerguden: checks
Zarzoor912: bets $28
Pokerguden: folds
Uncalled bet ($28) returned to Zarzoor912
Zarzoor912 collected $35.81 from pot
Zarzoor912: doesn't show hand

Tricky AKs

100NLHE ZOOM

I have not written a blog in a while, but hopefully I change that. I have a goal of writing a new blog every week, focusing on some of the more interesting hands that I played last week. This week I will discuss a hand from a recent season of $100NLHE ZOOM.

When it comes to pokerblogs, I think the by far best pokerblog out there is thinkingpoker.net. If you haven’t checked it out, do it right now. It is written by Andrew Boroks, one of the greatest poker minds (that is able to translate that thinking into logical and comprehensive English).  One my favorite segments of his blog is what he calls “What’s your play”. I want to try something similar this week. I will give you the action of this hand until the river. At the river, think about what you would do. Would you bet or Check and how would you respond to your opponent’s action. If you bet how much would you bet ? What range of cards do you think your opponent has? What kind of ranges does he thinks that you have?

I will give you my thoughts and the outcome of the hand in a few days.

To the hand:

I had accumulated some chips and had $175 at the table and my opponent had $160 at the start of the hand. 3FOLDS, I raise to $2 with AdKd, fold, 1call, 3fold. Flop (2way $5.50).

Note preflop: I tend to stick to a standard 2x preflop bet in all unopened pots. I used to bet closer to 2.5, but I think that in zoom tables people fold way more often using “fastfold” so 2x is often sufficient and I save ½bb everytime I get 3-betted and forced to fold my weaker holdings.

Opponent HUD: 65 hands, VPIP/PRF/3bet (26/18/0) Note not 1 single 3-bet out of the 25 times he faced a PFR. Also, he cold called 3 out of 7 hands from the CO position. These are very small samples, but it is all clues that we have about his playing style.

Flop: Kc8d6d

I bet ½ pot $3, which I think is pretty much standard C-bet against 1 opponent. My opponent called.

Turn: 3c I bet ½ $5 got re-raised to $13. I think this is a clear-cut CALL. With nut flush draw, folding is out of question. My opponent is polarized towards sets, possibly twopair (86), and some draws. It is possible that he holds a weaker K such as KQ. I think raising would be really bad since you would have to fold to a 4-bet and lose tons of equity. Also, I think that I have some call down equity to some of his range.

River: 7c.   

What do you do? Small bet to protect against big bluffs or check? If you check, how to you respond to a bet. What size bet would you call etc.

I would love to hear your inputs and ideas.

Pokerguden

Crazy river play

The game is 6 handed Zoom at Pokerstars with 0.5-$1. Villain (have raised 12% of the 50 hands we played, seems like a regular based on limited stats) has $167 in the beginning of the hand and I have a bit over $200. Villain raised to $3 from UTG+1 and I call with JdJc from UTG+2. Everyone else folded.

Click to view hand

Flop (Heads up pot $7.50) 2h7cJh: Villain bet 5, I raised to $13, Villain calls after some hesitation.

Turn (pot 33.50) Qc: Villain check, I bet $16, Villain calls

At this point I put villain on a range of Ax (heart),  KhQh, Th9h, AA, KK, 77, 22

Also, I figure that villain puts me on a polarized ranged consisting of monster and flush draws.

(Based on this I exclude 80% of QQ since I assume he would raise here most of the time)

River (pot 65.50) Ah Villain check without hesitation

Decision 1: Check or bet. The safest play is check since he has a lot of flush draws and AA in his range. If it was any other heart I would check behind 100% of the time. The A of heart does two things, it completes some of his hands while removing most of the possible flush draws from his and my range (seen from his eyes).  His quick also suggest that he has few flush draws in his range. A of heart is the scariest card in the deck at a first glance, and surely villain would at least consider to bet with a large percentage of his flushes. 

So how much should I bet? My thought at the point was that an allin would only get called with a flush (since he would assume that I would bet big with flushes and some complete bluffs). A small bet ½ pot could easily be called by lower sets, possible two pairs or potentially KhKx. The last hand is particular interesting since it holds a key card the King of heart. If he has that, he would know that the only flush card I can have is Th9h (1  combo) and the A of heart should stop me from betting, also hands like AJ should check here. I thought that some KK, at least if he has king of heart would result in a call. The only offset is that he might have AA. Again, I think AA would consider betting on flop  assuming I will check behind non flushes and bet flushes. In the end I think he would bet here with AA about 50% and check call 50%. At any rate, I think he would consider his option before checking.

I felt that I had a slight +EV in betting and decided to bet $31.

To my big surprise, villain moves all-in for $135 total

Basically, now I have to call 104 to win 335. I need 30% equity to justify calling

At this point all I have is a bluff catcher. Villain has three possible ranges

Value range: Flushes (set of aces and queens are extremely unlikely)

Pure bluffs: Almost possible

KK turn to bluff: KhKx seems like an excellent bluff card.

Let assume that villain knows that:

1.       Player with a set when checked to would check back 75% of the time, and call a small bet (30% of pot).

2.       Ace of heart removes many of the flush draws from my range

3.       With any of the flush draws villain has he should feel confident to bet and reluctant to check the river. Also, with AA he should consider to bet. If he checks he would lose one bet to any flush, and miss out on a bet against lower set that tends to check behind. Even if AA does check this river a lot, I expect him to take a few seconds to consider his option. With lower sets, and two pairs he would check. This was the reasoning I used to bet.

Now let assume that villain knows that I assume this!

Now, I lose to AA, QQ and flush (KT for straight as well but that is too unlikely).

His value range is KhQh,  Th9h and possible AA (but very unlikely)

His bluff range extremely narrow I would say KhKx, since Kh excludes most of my flushes and most importantly excludes the nut flush. It only leaves Th9h as the only possible flush draw I could have (given the action in the hand)

This is what I considered at this point

1.       Why did he initially check?

No hesitation check, check raises are normally abit slower. I think he was scared of the flush, but the size of my riverbet changed his mind.

2.       Which had does he expect me to bet and check with after his check.

Bet with flushes and possibly AA. Mostly check with weaker hands

3.       If I had a flush how much does he expect me to bet?

Bet big to get called by AA (since Ah takes away most of my flushes if he has a set of AA he would call)

4.       What does he think that I have?

Set

5.       Did he initially expect me to bet with a set?

No, the bet size changed his mind

6.       If he bets first to act does he expect me to call with a set?

Sometimes, plus I might have a flush (in his mind)

7.       What does he expect me to do when he raised allin?

Fold

8.       If he check raise the river with his value range what would his bet size be?

Varies, quite often small raises since sets often folds

I felt that he checked for two reasons. He assumed I would bet big with flushes and check back other hands. Hence, he beats my bluffs without risking anything and does not lose anything when beat. My small bet surprised him.  

When I bet, he realized that I had a set and saw his change. If I had a pure bluff or flush most likely I would have bet more. The more I thought about it KhKx seemed like the LEAST UNLIKELY hand. I called with 5 second left of my time bank (close to 2 minutes) got ready to “puke”, but was relieved to see that I was right. 

 Click to view hand

Review:

River bet I felt sure that he could only have Th9h, 77 or KK, and felt like I was doing the right thing. After spending hours using stats program calculating ranges and different outcome I think it is marginally correct. It does however increase variation, and losing a big pot when you could check behind can be a tilt factor. So overall checking might be better. When I bet, I felt that a reraise bluff was virtually impossible and I almost instant folded. My initial hesitation was more of disgust. That hesitation was enough to get me to calm down and start analyzing the hand. After having a few days to analyze the hand, I think I made a great call. As crazy at it seems, I think a check raise allin with KhKx is more than 30% of the range (actually I think it is close 60%) making it +EV call.

Finally, I love his river play. Im sure he didn’t plan to check raise. He expected me to check as well. My bet size gave him enough info to make this high level play. Unfortunately for him, I was able to re-evaluate and made high level call. That was poker is about, thinking one level higher than your opponent and reevaluate every decision.

Be careful what you say at the poker table

Be careful what you say at the poker table
小心你在牌桌上所說的話

At the Asian Pacific Poker Tour (APPT) tournament in Seoul, I got a terrible table draw. At first I thought the tournament was really that tough, but later I heard several people pointing out the different players at the table. There were a pokerstars pro, a recent Asia Player of the year winner, the winner of Jeju tournament that took place the week before and several other highly accomplished online players at my table. The game was played eight handed, and it had a really fast and aggressive playing style. One of the most exciting tables I played at in very long time. 

當我去打APPT首爾主賽事的時候，我抽到了一張非常硬的桌子。我原本以為這是一場非常難打的比賽，但之後我被告知我的桌子上有許多亞洲撲克圈的撲克名人 。其中有曾經拿過亞洲代表玩家的，有同一年濟州APT冠軍的，還有一些網路上有名的玩家。這是一個八人桌，是一個"快"又"狠"的桌子，至少從我開始打國際級的比賽時最具有挑戰性的一個桌子。

 I was seated in the 6 seat, with the two “other” Taiwanese players to my immediate right. With all the other players at the table being white or Korean, they started to discuss hand ranges and strategies. I mean why not, it is not like that Scandinavian guy to your right is going to understand. Everything was going great; they were giving me a lot of free information. I could fairly quickly double my stack during the first 4 levels of play. 

我被分配到6號的位置，旁邊坐了兩位來自台灣的選手。因為來比賽的大部分都是韓國人或白人。他們就開始用中文討論一些對手可能持有的牌，或比賽戰略等等。他們大概想說"應該沒關係吧~旁邊這個瑞典人反正也聽不懂啊"之類的。這個比賽進展得非常順利，他們給了我很多免費的資訊，所以我可以在第4階段就打到兩倍的籌碼。

Then I made the biggest mistake of the tournament. A guy from Slovakia had just sat down at the table, and he looked at me and said:

“You look European, where are you from”

Without thinking I responded

“Sweden, but I live in Taiwan now”

The two Taiwanese players instantly stopped talking and turned to me.“do you understand Chinese”

No more free information. The look on their face was hilarious though... :)

之後，我犯了一個很大的錯誤! 一個來自斯洛伐克的玩家被分配到我坐位的旁邊，他看了我一眼，然後對我說 
" 你看起來很像歐洲人耶，你從哪裡來的?"

我完全沒多加考慮，就回答
"瑞典人，但我現在住台灣!"
這時，坐在我旁邊的兩位台灣玩家立刻安靜了幾秒，然後轉頭問我
"所以你聽得懂中文?"
他們是誰我無可奉告，但他們臉上的表情絕對經典!

If you are at poker table, you need to think about what kind of information you are giving out. Even a question as “Where are you from” could change the outcome of a tournament. Even more so, you can never expect that someone doesn’t understand Chinese. Especially if you are playing poker in Asia!

 There are a lot of westerners in Taiwan that knows Chinese a lot better than me. I only understood about 80% and I got a huge advantage. So if you are going to talk about your hands this is what you do. Change the cards to something else. Since Taiwanese people always talk about food, it makes things easy. 

當你坐在牌桌上的時候，你必須好好的思考，什麼樣的訊息可以說，什麼不能說。就連一個簡單的問題"你從哪裡來"也可以改變整場比賽的結果，還有，你永遠無法預測在亞洲打比賽，你的對手聽不聽得懂中文。雖然在台灣有許多外國人的中文比我好很多，但我聽得懂80%隔壁玩家的對話，因此我得到了很多優勢! 所以如果你要談論你那手牌，你可以用另一種方式討論。像台灣人非常喜歡美食，相對來說，可以把你的牌比喻成不同的台灣小吃，這樣會非常容易讓別人聽不懂

Here is a rough guide:
 這裡是我發明的指南:

Oyster pancake: 76s  A dish that can be hit or miss due to the restaurant, the name should refer to a hand that is hit or miss.

蚵仔煎:76s，一道時而好吃，時而難吃的一道菜，因為取決於餐廳食材新鮮度。可以代表一手有時可以買到順子，有時什麼都買不到的牌

 

Mala hot pot: AKs Dangerous, but really good. You love it when you eat it, but quite often you end up with stomach pain the next day. No other hand is that good, but also one of the hands you are most likely to go bust with.

麻辣火鍋: AKs，非常危險，但是手很好的牌。吃的時候覺得超愛，但常常隔天會拉肚子。沒有別手牌是這麼好的，但常常是很多人會比賽gg的一手牌。

Stinky tofu: 72o No explanation needed

臭豆腐: 72o 不用解釋了....(小編:對臭豆腐那麼有偏見，哼)

Pokerguden

So close, so far away and such a big waste of time

So close, so far away and such a big waste of time
好近，但又好遠而且超級浪費時間

Right after I met my wife, I had the poker day of my life and won 60k in a FPP tournament (as I mentioned before), and a few months later I got invited to special freeroll at ultimatebet that awarded trip to their aruba tournament. After winning, she was convinced that I was a free roll master. 

在我剛剛認識我太太不久之後，我經歷人生撲克贏最多錢的一天 (6萬美金)，而且是打5000點數的比賽贏的，幾個月之後我被邀請參予一個Ultimatebet特別的免費比賽(給訂閱過Card Player的人打的)，贏的人可以去Aruba打WPT加上3000美元獎金。我很幸運得拿到了獎品，所以我太太從此認定我是一個打免費比賽的強手。

I guess the name got stocked. I have a feeling even if I win the WSOP main event one day, she will think of me as the freeroll king rather than world champion. She hates the idea of a losing day, or even a losing session. So when the Taiwan freeroll was announced she got really excited and she convinced (forced) me to take a shoot.

我想這個綽號會一直跟隨著我，我覺得就算有一天我贏了WSOP主賽事，她還是會把我定位在"免費錦標賽之王"而不是冠軍得主。她無法忍受我一天輸錢，甚至一天之中的某一段時間輸錢她也會受不了。所以當撲克之星公佈台灣的免費錦標賽開打之後，她非常開心，然後說服(逼>_<)我打。

 
For those of you not familiar with the Taiwan freerolls, they consist of three steps. First the daily tournament where 9 out of approximately 220 players get a seat in the weekly final. The weekly final has a slightly smaller field and again 9 players are award a ticket to the monthly championship. After about 20 daily tournament and three weekly finals I finally got a seat in the monthly championship. The monthly final awards 1 seat to a live final table, with the top price being a poker trip to Macau and the Red Dragon.

如果你不太了解這個錦標賽的比賽規則，讓我娓娓道來。這個比賽有分成三個階段。第一個是每日三場的免費錦標賽，每一場大約有220人左右參加，會取九位參賽者晉級到每周的錦標賽。每周的錦標賽有稍微少一點點的人數，也是取前9名到一個月一次的final。經歷了20天的每日錦標賽和3次的每週錦標賽，我終於打到每月的錦標賽，也就是最後一關。贏得最後一關的人可以到現場打一個9人比賽，9人比賽的冠軍可贏得紅龍杯參賽資格和免費的住宿。

If I was bored in the weekly tournament, and half asleep in the daily I was finally motivated to get back to my normal tournament schedule. All I had to do is win this 36 field tournament, and I could stop playing these time consuming tournaments. I worked my way all the way to headsup. Bang a missed flush draw and a coin flip later and I was back at square 1. 2^nd place, and nothing for the effort. Still have a few unused weekly tickets, so I might give it a last shoot. Luckily I have the bankroll for the normal satellite, but there is a certain satisfaction to qualify for free. However, when you get close like this it is hard not to look at these tournaments as huge waste of time.

每次當我在"每週"打到超無聊，或在"每日"打到快睡著的時候，我總是用自己比較常打的比賽來勉勵自己。我告訴自己"只要撐到每月的冠軍(36人取1)，我就再也不用打這類的比賽了"。我非常努力的打到剩下最後兩個人hp的時候，"轟隆一聲"我沒買到花，下一個coin flip又輸掉的時候，我又被打入第一階段(因為我拿了第二名)，長久以來的努力化成煙霧。我目前還有幾張"每週"的票，所以我可能會再試最後一次。還好我目前有足夠的錢可以打真正的錦標賽，但如果不用花任何一毛錢就打到票，心裡總會有一絲絲奇妙的滿足感。但是當你非常接近勝利，但卻沒有成功的時候，真的很難不認為自己其實浪費了很多時間!

Equilab- A Must For Any Serious Player

Equilab- A Must For Any Serious Player
Equilab- 專業玩家的必需品

During the first levels of a freeroll tournament it is common that players goes allin right away with 20% and even 30% of their hands. So what kind of hand do you need to have to call these large allin bets?  To calculate that you can use a free software called Equilab www.pokerstrategy.com/software/10

如果你有打免費衛星賽的經驗，通常比賽剛開始(大盲，小盲還是最低層次的時候)有些玩家會把他們20%-30%的牌全押(all-in)。到底你必須有哪幾手牌，才能跟注呢? 如果你想分析或計算你贏牌的機率，我會推薦一個叫Equilab的免費軟體。(有興趣可以點上面的連結)

You can put in a percentage of hands that you think that your opponent raise (or go allin) with and the program will estimate the range of hands your opponent has. In such a weak field I like to be 55% favorite to call. The program can tell you exactly what hands has a certain win percentage against his range.

首先，你可以輸入你的對手平常加注或全押(all-in)的比例，這個軟體就可以幫你用排除的方式計算出你的對手有可能持有的牌。在這種新手較多的比賽，我希望有55%勝算去跟注。這個軟體也會告訴你，哪幾手牌對上你的對手可能持有的牌，贏的機率會是多少。

In the case above, if you put in 20% as the number of hands your opponent raises it would suggest that his range consists of A5+, 55+ and any two cards above JT. To justify calling I would need 99+ or AT+. Each of these hands will give you above 55% chance to win.  So the best calling hands against these frequent allin players are medium to high pairs and any decent ace.   

如果套用上面的例子，如果你輸入20%為你的對手經常加注的機率，軟體會告訴你他可能持有的牌大概是A5+,55+或任一兩張比JT更大的牌。如果你想要跟注的話，你必須要有99+或AT+，這幾手牌會給你大於55%的贏牌機率，總之，對於這些經常全押(all-in)的對手，你最有勝算的牌是中等以上的"一對"或好一點的A組合。


If you are serious about poker I highly recommend Equilab. 

如果你對撲克是認真的，我非常推薦你使用Equilab.