The game is 6 handed Zoom at Pokerstars with
0.5-$1. Villain (have raised
12% of the 50 hands we played, seems like a regular based on limited stats) has
$167 in the beginning of the hand and I have a bit over $200. Villain raised to
$3 from UTG+1 and I call with JdJc from UTG+2. Everyone else folded.
Flop (Heads up pot $7.50) 2h7cJh: Villain bet 5, I raised to $13, Villain calls
after some hesitation.
Turn (pot 33.50) Qc: Villain
check, I bet $16, Villain calls
At this point I put
villain on a range of Ax (heart), KhQh,
Th9h, AA, KK, 77, 22
Also, I figure that
villain puts me on a polarized ranged consisting of monster and flush draws.
(Based on this I
exclude 80% of QQ since I assume he would raise here most of the time)
River (pot 65.50) Ah Villain
check without hesitation
Decision 1: Check or bet. The safest play is check since he has a lot of flush
draws and AA in his range. If it was any other heart I would check behind 100%
of the time. The A of heart does two things, it completes some of his hands
while removing most of the possible flush draws from his and my range (seen
from his eyes). His quick also suggest
that he has few flush draws in his range. A of heart is the scariest card in
the deck at a first glance, and surely villain would at least consider to bet
with a large percentage of his flushes.
So how much should I
bet? My thought at the point was that an allin would only get called with a
flush (since he would assume that I would bet big with flushes and some
complete bluffs). A small bet ½ pot could easily be called by lower sets,
possible two pairs or potentially KhKx. The last hand is particular interesting
since it holds a key card the King of heart. If he has that, he would know that
the only flush card I can have is Th9h (1
combo) and the A of heart should stop me from betting, also hands like
AJ should check here. I thought that some KK, at least if he has king of heart
would result in a call. The only offset is that he might have AA. Again, I
think AA would consider betting on flop
assuming I will check behind non flushes and bet flushes. In the end I
think he would bet here with AA about 50% and check call 50%. At any rate, I
think he would consider his option before checking.
I felt that I had a slight +EV in betting and
decided to bet $31.
To my big surprise, villain moves all-in for
$135 total
Basically, now I have
to call 104 to win 335. I need 30% equity to justify calling
At this point all I
have is a bluff catcher. Villain has three possible ranges
Value range: Flushes
(set of aces and queens are extremely unlikely)
Pure bluffs: Almost
possible
KK turn to bluff: KhKx
seems like an excellent bluff card.
Let assume that
villain knows that:
1.
Player
with a set when checked to would check back 75% of the time, and call a small
bet (30% of pot).
2.
Ace of
heart removes many of the flush draws from my range
3.
With any
of the flush draws villain has he should feel confident to bet and reluctant to
check the river. Also, with AA he should consider to bet. If he checks he would
lose one bet to any flush, and miss out on a bet against lower set that tends
to check behind. Even if AA does check this river a lot, I expect him to take a
few seconds to consider his option. With lower sets, and two pairs he would
check. This was the reasoning I used to
bet.
Now let assume that villain knows that I assume
this!
Now, I lose to AA, QQ
and flush (KT for straight as well but that is too unlikely).
His value range is
KhQh, Th9h and possible AA (but very
unlikely)
His bluff range extremely
narrow I would say KhKx, since Kh excludes most of my flushes and most
importantly excludes the nut flush. It only leaves Th9h as the only possible
flush draw I could have (given the action in the hand)
This is what I
considered at this point
1. Why
did he initially check?
No
hesitation check, check raises are normally abit slower. I think he was scared
of the flush, but the size of my riverbet changed his mind.
2. Which
had does he expect me to bet and check with after his check.
Bet
with flushes and possibly AA. Mostly check with weaker hands
3. If I
had a flush how much does he expect me to bet?
Bet
big to get called by AA (since Ah takes away most of my flushes if he has a set
of AA he would call)
4. What
does he think that I have?
Set
5. Did
he initially expect me to bet with a set?
No,
the bet size changed his mind
6. If he
bets first to act does he expect me to call with a set?
Sometimes,
plus I might have a flush (in his mind)
7. What
does he expect me to do when he raised allin?
Fold
8. If he
check raise the river with his value range what would his bet size be?
Varies,
quite often small raises since sets often folds
I felt that he checked
for two reasons. He assumed I would bet big with flushes and check back other
hands. Hence, he beats my bluffs without risking anything and does not lose
anything when beat. My small bet surprised him.
When I bet, he
realized that I had a set and saw his change. If I had a pure bluff or flush
most likely I would have bet more. The more I thought about it KhKx seemed like
the LEAST UNLIKELY hand. I called with 5 second left of my time bank (close to
2 minutes) got ready to “puke”, but was relieved to see that I was right.
Click to view hand
Click to view hand
Review:
River bet I felt sure that he could only have Th9h, 77 or KK, and felt like I was
doing the right thing. After spending hours using stats program calculating
ranges and different outcome I think it is marginally correct. It does however
increase variation, and losing a big pot when you could check behind can be a
tilt factor. So overall checking might be better. When I bet, I felt that a
reraise bluff was virtually impossible and I almost instant folded. My initial
hesitation was more of disgust. That hesitation was enough to get me to calm
down and start analyzing the hand. After having a few days to analyze the hand,
I think I made a great call. As crazy at it seems, I think a check raise allin
with KhKx is more than 30% of the range (actually I think it is close 60%)
making it +EV call.
Finally, I love his
river play. Im sure he didn’t plan to check raise. He expected me to check as
well. My bet size gave him enough info to make this high level play.
Unfortunately for him, I was able to re-evaluate and made high level call. That
was poker is about, thinking one level higher than your opponent and reevaluate
every decision.
